It’s one of the most anticipated data drops in all of theme park nerd-dom… Every year, the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA) partners with a consulting firm called AECOM to compile an annual report on the ups and downs of theme parks, waterparks, museums, and other “thematic” experiences from the year prior. (Supporting Members of Park Lore can read our broad strokes summary of industry trends gleaned from 2022 and 2023 in dedicated Extra Features!)
Though renamed from its previous title (the Theme Index Report) this year’s 2024 Global Experience Index continues to be an annual publication of note for theme park fans in particular, and – as always – is worth an in-depth read. It’s filled with the highs and lows, global contexts, and stories that permeated theme park news in the year prior. But most importantly… it also contains a ranking and roll-up of the year’s theme park attendance.
To be clear, most theme park operators do not disclose their parks’ attendance, and even if they speak in broad generalities, totals, or percentages at investor calls, they almost never divulge specific attendance figures for specific parks… However, it’s known that many operators do work with AECOM to come up with fairly accurate figures since it’s in the best interest of their share price, financial disclosures, and year-upon-year narratives that their attendance be discussed vaguely, but honestly.
As far as industry observers are concerned, TEA / AECOM’s October report is as good as a lock on last year’s attendance numbers, providing (as always) a captivating quantitative estimate that offers some compelling trends and talking points to the community… This year, the global rankings of the top eight parks are unchanged from 2023, with only slight increases at each:
- Magic Kingdom (17.8 million, +.7%)
- Disneyland Park (17.3 million, +.5%)
- Universal Studios Japan (16 million, no change)
- Tokyo Disneyland (15.1 million, +2.6%)
- Shanghai Disneyland (14.7 million, +5%)
- Chimelong Ocean Kingdom (12.6 million, +.9%)
- Tokyo DisneySea (12.6 million, +2.9%)
- EPCOT (12.1 million, +1.3%)
It’s not really a surprise that the ranking of these eight is unchanged from 2023. These parks are highly stable, built-out destinations. (There are obviously two exceptions. Chimelong Ocean Kingdom is a relatively new park buoyed by the same kind of growing middle class in China that spurred Shanghai Disneyland and Universal Studios Beijing; EPCOT has been in the “top eight” for two straight years, but will inevitably rejoin the continuous rotation of Disney World’s auxiliary parks soon enough.)
Meanwhile, some parks shuffle their ranking for the next batch of the top 15…
9. Disney’s Hollywood Studios (10.3 million, +.3%) (up from spot 10 in 2023)
10. Disneyland Paris (10.2 million, –1.8%) (down from spot 9 in 2023)
11. Disney California Adventure (10 million, +.5%) (up from spot 12 in 2023)
12. Universal Studios Beijing (9.7 million, +8.6%) (up from spot 15 in 2023)
13. Universal Studios Florida (9.5 million, –2.6%) (no ranking change)
14. Universal Islands of Adventure (9.45 million, –5.5%) (down from spot 11 in 2023)
15. Disney’s Animal Kingdom (8.8 million, +.3%) (up from spot 16 in 2023)
Which brings us to some big picture takeaways that these numbers suggest…
1. Universal Orlando hopes this is the darkness before the dawn
Fans of the underdog story had a lot of excitement this time two years ago when the big news in the 2022 rankings was the jaw-dropping suggestion that Universal Orlando might have done the impossible and used the pandemic as a one-shot to the moon. In 2022, Universal Islands of Adventure ranked as the fifth most-attended theme park on Earth, beating out EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom and essentially ranking among the vaunted “Castle Parks.” (Universal Studios Florida didn’t do much worse – it was seventh!)
Last year’s attendance estimates, meanwhile, suggested that the boon was short-lived. Both Universal Orlando parks were estimated to have lost attendance to the tune of 9% in 2023, falling to 11th and 13th in the ranks, respectively. Obviously, that’s a devastating blow for parks that had otherwise tracked upward trajectory for years and even seemed to have come out the other side of the pandemic right back on track and even stronger than before – something no Walt Disney World park even approached.
According to 2024 estimates, that slide continues, with Islands shedding 5.5% from its attendance year-over-year, and Universal Studios Florida decreasing by 2.6%. Those are better losses than the massive drop-off in 2023, but still worrying for a resort whose substantial investment and pervasive internal narrative over the last few years has been predicated entirely upon the presumption that Universal finally had the gravity to change tourism in Central Florida.
Obviously, Universal’s explanation here would be that 2024 was a year of guests delaying vacations in anticipation of the crescendo of that growth spurt: the 2025 opening of Universal Epic Universe. But very much like Ant-Man: Quantumania, these results have to have even the most resilient Comcast executive wondering if their inherited theme park division has the limitless potential and infallible trjactory that made a third theme park seem so obvious a few years ago… Speaking of which…
2. Speculation around Epic Universe’s impact is beginning…
It’s worth remembering that Epic Universe didn’t open until May 2025, meaning that we wouldn’t expect to see any data from or impact of the new park’s attendance until the next edition of the TEA / AECOM Experience Index is published in fall 2026… But even that will only represent a year with six operating months for Epic Universe (and artificially limited by excluding “Park Hopping” and Annual Passholders, at that), so don’t expect Epic to debut anywhere within the top 15 next year.
Frankly, it won’t be until late 2027 (when TEA / AECOM publishes 2026 data) that we begin to get a complete picture of Epic Universe’s affect on Central Florida. As to what that effect will be? On one end of the spectrum, Universal would very much like if Epic Universe would be the project bright and loud enough to finally establish Universal Orlando into a self-contained, “bubbled,” multi-day resort destination. In Universal’s dream scenario, a family would land in MCO without Disney World being on their itinerary at all, hunkering down at a Universal hotel with a Park-to-Park ticket, resulting in all three of Universal’s theme parks seeing continued growth in attendance.
On the other hand, Disney is probably crossing their fingers that Epic’s effect will be what some industry observers have warned about since the park’s announcement: that it’ll “cannibalize” the resort’s other two parks. That would mean that rather than adding a day to their overall vacation to visit Epic Universe, guests would simply replace an existing day – probably a visit to Universal Studios Florida. That would be trouble indeed, resulting in Universal attracting no more guests overall; just spreading them more thinly across three parks instead of two. Gulp. No wonder earth is already moving on major projects for both Universal Studios and Islands of Adventure…
By the way, even if the latter scenario comes to pass, the 2024 data suggests that Disney isn’t exactly in the clear… If guests do end up replacing a day to visit Epic Universe, it could very well be a Disney park that drops off the itinerary… It looks likely that one Disney Park will fall out of the top fifteen entirely, and data reveals that rumors of flatlining attendance may be more than myth… Read on…
